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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.